The Alberta General Election has been called unpredictable by some, and Alberta rural ridings have not been spared.
“I heard somebody the other day say they wouldn't bet a dollar on the outcome,” said Lori Williams, professor in the political science department at Mount Royal University.
Voter intention polls have swayed between a win for either the United Conservative Party or the New Democratic Party over the course of the election, and the race remains tight in a handful of rural ridings as well.
Lethbridge-East and Lethbridge-West
Williams said she believes these are both ridings to watch because of controversy over health care and the ongoing concerns over lack of obstetrical care in the region.
Data from 388Canada from May 22 showed the riding of Lethbridge East was projected to be a toss- up between the UCP and the NDP.
The popular vote projection showed UCP candidate and incumbent Nathan Neudorf in the lead with 50 per cent of the vote. NDP candidate Rob Miyashiro is hot on Neudorf’s heels with a projected 49 per cent of the popular vote.
In 2019, Neudorf won the riding with 52. 4 per cent of the vote compared to NDP Maria Fitzpatrick with 38.7 per cent.
The riding of Lethbridge West was projected as a leaning NDP hold, according to 388Canada.
Data current from May 22, showed NDP MLA Shannon Phillips was leading the popular vote projection at 51 per cent. Cheryl Seaborn, the UCP candidate, was projected at 43 per cent of the popular vote. Alberta Party candidate, Braham Luddu, was projected to have five per cent of the popular vote.
Phillips squeaked out a win in 2019 with 45.2 per cent of the vote against UCP candidate Karri Flatla who took 44.3 per cent of the vote.
Banff-Kananaskis
The race is tight in the Banff-Kananaskis riding.
The NDP candidate, Sarah Elmeligi, current from May 22, is projected to have 48 per cent of the popular vote.
The UCP candidate and incumbent Miranda Rosen is projected by 388Canada to have 47 per cent of the popular vote.
“Miranda Rosen is pretty controversial,” said Williams. “She has been offside on parks and on coal mining. She has been offside of some of the people in that region.”
Rosen won the riding for the UCP in 2019 with 51.2 per cent of the vote. The NDP candidate Cam Westhead lost with 42.1 per cent of the votes.
Morinville-St. Albert
Williams said the Morinville-St. Albert riding will be an interesting one to watch.
The riding is considered a toss-up between the UCP and NDP according to 388 Canada projection current from May 22.
Data from 388 Canada showed UCP incumbent Dale Nally was leading in the polls at 46 per cent. The NDP candidate, Karen Shaw, was not far behind with a projected of 44 per cent.
The Alberta Party with Wayne Rufiange as candidate was trailing well behind both the UCP and the NDP with a projected eight per cent of the vote.
Nally won the riding in 2019 with 50 per cent of the vote. Natalie Birnie, candidate for the NDP, received 33.1 per cent of the vote, while Neil Korotash of the Alberta Party had 14.7 per cent of the vote.
Sherwood Park
The Sherwood Park riding is also a toss-up, and Williams said this riding could go either way as it was held by the NDP in 2015.
“It was an NDP riding — although the boundary somewhat changed — in 2015. And even though it's a UCP incumbent again, depending on which way the wind winds blowing that day, it could be interesting,” she said.
Data from 388Canada showed the NDP candidate, Kyle Kasawski, in the lead, as of May 22, with 48 per cent of the popular vote. Incumbent UCP candidate Jordan Walker is projected at 45 per cent of the vote.
Walker won the riding in 2019 with 44.3 per cent of the vote. The NDP Annie McKitrick scored 40.6 per cent of the vote.
Lacombe-Ponoka
The riding of Lacombe-Ponoka is still considered UCP safe despite controversy with UCP candidate Jennifer Johnson.
Although Johnson remains the UCP candidate for the riding, Smith in a May 18, press release said Johnson will not sit as a member of the United Conservative Caucus in the Legislature due to “offensive language and a vile analogy when speaking about the 2SLGBTQIA+ community for which she apologized.”
Williams said Johnson is likely to win.
Data current from May 22, projected 55 per cent of the popular vote to Johnson as the UCP candidate.
The NDP candidate Dave Dale is projected with 27 per cent of the popular vote, while ABP hopeful Myles Chykerda is projected to have 12 per cent of the popular vote.
Ronald Orr with the UCP brought in 71.2 per cent of the vote in the 2019 election. The NDP Doug Hart had 15 per cent and Myles Chykerda of the ABP had 10.4 per cent of the vote.
Brooks-Medicine Hat
The Brooks-Medicine Hat riding might be worth a watch, despite the UCP safe rating from 388Canada, because it is the riding UCP party leader Danielle Smith took over in November of last year after she won the leadership race in October and former MLA Michaela Frey stepped down.
It is also the riding Alberta Party leader, Barry Morishita, is running in.
“(This riding) is going to be worth watching, just because it's got two leaders running (Smith, Morishita) and depending on which way the wind is blowing, this could be problematic,” said Williams.
The projected popular vote has Smith at 62 per cent, while NDP candidate Gwendoline Dirk is projected at 33 per cent of the popular vote. While Morishita is projected at five per cent.
In 2019, Frey took home 60.7 per cent of the vote. The NDP candidate Lynn MacWilliam had 17.6 per cent of the vote while Jim Black with the ABP came in with 6.5 per cent of the vote.
Other ridings
Other ridings to watch include Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville — the riding turned into an NDP seat in 2015 and then into a UCP seat in 2019.
Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland — the NDP candidate, Oneil Carlier, is a former NDP cabinet minister and is running against UCP incumbent Shane Getson.
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake — the riding has four right-wing candidates to choose from including the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta, Independence Party of Alberta, Solidarity Movement of Alberta, and the Reform Part.
“A lot of right-wing folks to choose from and who knows that might bring it into play,” said Williams.
Peace River — the riding was held by the NDP in 2015
Lesser Slave Lake — the riding was also held by the NDP in 2015.
Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin — “I actually think that's going to be really interesting, especially given some of the things the Mayor of Wetaskiwin (Tyler Gandam) has said recently about more policing not solving the crime problem historically,” said Williams.
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundry — Williams said UCP incumbent Jason Nixon is seen as a former Premier Jason Kenney ally. Tim Hoven was disqualified from the UCP nomination in 2022 and is running as an independent.
“There could be an anti-establishment sort of mirrored action happening there,” said Williams.
St. Albert and Strathcona-Sherwood Park, or as Williams called them “the donut around Edmonton.”
Williams said the donut has flipped back and forth between candidates historically.
“I do think there's a potential there. But again, I think a lot depends on what happens in there in the remaining days of the campaign and whether anybody builds momentum, as we've seen both in 2012 and 2015, that that momentum broke late in the campaign.
“I don't think I'm expecting a big shift to happen at the last minute here, but that is a possibility.”
