It might be warm now, but Terry Bokenfohr is worried about frost.
The longtime Sturgeon County farmer has yet to put a dent in this year's harvest, and the first fall frost could be as little as a week away.
"There are some canola fields that are at real risk," he said, and plenty of wheat that could be ravaged by frost. "We're probably anywhere from a week to two weeks behind."
Bokenfohr isn't the only one running late this season — farmers have collected just 10 per cent of this year's harvest at this point, according to the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB), one that should be noticeably smaller than last year's.
And it could be the last harvest for the board itself, said chair Allan Oberg, speaking at the board's year-end press conference in Winnipeg last Friday — the federal government plans to table legislation to end the board's single-desk monopoly on grain sales in the west this fall, a move some say will spell the end for the board.
"If a new organization is created, it will bear no resemblance to the CWB as it is today," Oberg said.
Weather woes
Last year's harvest was smaller and of lower quality than average due to heavy rains, said Ian White, the board's CEO — some 4.2 million hectares were flooded out of production, an area about 20 times the size of Sturgeon County.
Farmers salvaged just 21 million tonnes of wheat from their fields in 2010, White said, compared to 24 million the previous year. Just 38 per cent of the Canadian western red spring wheat collected was considered high quality (in the top two grades), making it one of the five worst crops since 1970.
Adding to headaches was a shortage of rail cars from CP Rail, White continued, one of the two main carriers in Canada. "We simply could not get the number of rail cars we needed when we needed them." Just 16 million tonnes of grain were exported from Canada last year — one of the smallest shipments in 10 years. Still, high prices helped farmers net some $5.8 billion, the fourth-highest return in Canadian history.
Floods in the south and droughts in the north made for a rotten start to this crop season, White said, one that knocked about 2.4 million hectares out of commission. "It has been too hot and dry in the eastern prairies and too cold in the west."
Heavy June rains have made many county fields into hotbeds of disease, Bokenfohr said. Even fields sprayed with fungicide in July have been hit with leaf and stem diseases — his pea crop collapsed from weakened stems last week despite spraying. "It's going to make it a more difficult harvest."
Farmers should harvest about 17.4 million tonnes of wheat this year, White predicted, down slightly from last year's 18 million. Prices should stay at about the same level as last year, hovering at around $8.75 a bushel for spring wheat.
Future uncertain
Oberg railed against the federal government's proposal to end the single desk without holding a producer vote. "If the single desk is eliminated, the landscape of prairie wheat marketing will change dramatically. The CWB will end." The board would release the results of its informal vote on the single desk on Sept. 8.
Earl Geddes, executive director of the Canadian International Grain Institute in Winnipeg and member of the federal task force on the future of the CWB, largely agreed with Oberg's assessment.
"The Canadian Wheat Board is synonymous with a marketing monopoly that farmers have had to use for 75-plus years," he said. "If you don't have a single desk, you don't have [a CWB]."
Although economists disagree over how the end of the desk would affect farmers, Geddes said it's certain to affect grain research and marketing in Canada. "All those pieces need to find a new champion." Grain research groups like his will also need to find new backers.
A lot will depend on the nature of the government's legislation this fall, he said, and how the CWB responds to it. "Most of the industry is sitting here saying, 'When are we going to know what we're going to be doing a year from now?'"
The CWB's crop report is available at www.cwb.ca.
