Climate change could cost Canadians billions a year within a decade unless they take steps to adapt, says a new report.
A report this week from the federally funded National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy predicts that floods, fires, deaths and other consequences of climate warming could cost Canadians $5 billion a year by 2020. The report is the first comprehensive look at the fiscal impact of climate change on Canada.
"Climate change will be expensive for Canada and Canadians," the report says, as it promotes coastal flooding, extreme weather, forest fires and deaths from air pollution. The report finds that Canada would lose about $5 billion a year by 2020, rising up to $43 billion a year by the 2050s. The 2011-12 Alberta budget was $39 billion by comparison.
Climate change will have substantial impacts on the world's forests and oceans, says Matt Horne, climate change specialist with the Pembina Institute. "Our economy depends on healthy forests and lower oceans. When those change, they have a major impact on the economy."
Price of inaction
The report calculates the effects of climate change on Canada's economy under four emissions and growth scenarios, with specific focus on the timber, coastal and health sectors. It also looks at the cost effectiveness of climate change adaptation strategies.
The report found that climate change would cost foresters about $2-to-$17 billion a year by 2050 due to greater losses from pests and fires. Alberta alone would lose about $1 billion a year as it's estimated to lose up to 14 per cent of its timber.
It would also lead to more deaths from heat and air pollution. Calgary can expect to lose about $300 million a year due to premature death caused by climate change by 2020, or about $251 per person.
St. Albert would also feel the pinch from climate change, according to city environmental manager Leah Jackson, due to extreme weather events similar to the floods of 2007 and 2008. "We've been seeing a lot of tree mortality due to drought weather," she says, and more warmth would make trees more vulnerable to disease and bugs.
Prevention saves money
"There is a clear economic link between rising global emissions and how Canada is impacted," the report finds. Canada should work both here and abroad to reduce its emissions.
If the world reduces its greenhouse gas emissions enough to limit Canadian climate change to 4.3 C of warming, the report finds, climate change would cost us about $149 billion a year by 2075. But if emissions grow fast and Canada warms by 5.3 C, those costs balloon to $221 billion a year.
"Adapting to climate change makes economic sense," the report reads. "It can lower the costs of climate impacts by preventing damage, saving money and lives."
Canada could cut the costs of rising oceans to three to four per cent of their predicted level simply by not building in flood-prone areas, the report finds. Foresters could see similar net cost reductions through better fire prevention. Ozone controls would cause a net reduction to the cost of air pollution in cities; green roofs would not.
Horne says he hopes this report gets the federal government to take climate change seriously and introduce more effective emission reduction strategies, such as a carbon tax.
St. Albert residents have identified reducing greenhouse gas emissions as their top environmental priority, says Jackson, referring to the city's Environmental Master Plan. The city has completed its emissions inventory, and hopes to create a reduction plan next year.
St. Albert will need to reduce its vehicle use if it wants to reduce its emissions, Jackson says, and that means making our neighbourhoods more walkable. "If we just keep on building the way we are building, it's just going to get worse."
The full report is available at nrtee-trnee.ca.
