Alberta modelling shows public health measures are saving lives from COVID-19, but premier warns don't numbers for granted

Alberta’s premier said new COVID-19 projections show promising signs that Alberta is relatively well prepared to face the peak of the pandemic, but urged Albertans to remain vigilant as aggressive public health measures stretch on for weeks, even months, to flatten the curve. 

“This is encouraging data that we are doing better than most countries, but it’s nothing we can take for granted," said Premier Jason Kenney after releasing detailed COVID-19 modelling projections on Wednesday. 

COVID-19 modelling in Alberta shows the province expects to hit a peak in infections in mid-May, with 800,000 Albertans infected and anywhere between 400 and 3,100 total deaths by August. 

Similar modelling released Thursday by the Government of Canada estimates between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadians could die from the virus over the next few months, 500 to 700 by the end of next week. 

“While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada’s modelling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic and to save lives,” said Theresa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer of Canada in a statement Thursday. “We cannot prevent every death, but we must prevent all the deaths we can.” 

Though raw projections on infections and death tolls may be frightening as Albertans prepare to weather the worst of the pandemic, Kenney said modelling shows Alberta’s health care system is well prepared to meet the needs of Albertans relative to other jurisdictions harder hit by the novel coronavirus and even may be in a position to offer help. 

Compared to other countries, Alberta’s modelling shows the spread of COVID-19 is trending at similar rates to those of South Korea and Japan – countries that have been praised for their effective response to the coronavirus outbreak – and is not seeing the same kind of steep upward curves in infections as the United States and Spain, places hit hard by the pandemic.

According to data reported by the World Health Organization, South Korea had seen 10,423 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 50 deaths by Thursday while Japan had seen 4,768 cases and 85 deaths. 

The United States had reported 395,030 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 12,740 deaths while Spain had seen 146,690 infections and 14,555 deaths. 

The Government of Canada's modelling estimates growth rates in the United States and Spain nearly doubling every three days, where Canada's rate sees cases doubling every four to five days.

Within Canada, modelling shows Alberta’s rate of infections are roughly in line with Ontario and British Columbia, but fall far short of Quebec, where an early spring break that saw more travelers come back from places where the virus was already spreading has been blamed for their higher rate of infections and deaths. 

“Our slope is about half as high as the national slope,” Kenney said. 

Ontario has seen 5,759 confirmed cases and 200 deaths, B.C. has recorded 1,336 cases and 50 deaths and Quebec has reported 10,031 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 216 deaths so far. 

As of Thursday, Alberta had seen 1,451 confirmed cases and 32 deaths, with more than half of all of the province's infections being reported in Calgary. 

Based off of information from other places where the pandemic struck earlier, the Government of Alberta released three projected scenarios for the province. 

The first most “probable” projection follows the growth rate seen in the United Kingdom, where the rate of spread has been comparatively well controlled. This model assumes every person infected with COVID-19 in Alberta spreads it to one or two people. 

This probable scenario would see the peak in COVID-19 cases in Alberta hit in mid-May with around 800 hospitalizations – approximately 230 needing critical care – at the height of demand at the end of that month. 

This model predicts the province will have ample supply of intensive care beds and ventilators by the end of April to handle the peak. Had those peak numbers hit today, modelling shows the province wouldn’t have had the ventilator and intensive care bed capacity to handle it. 

Currently, the actual rate of hospitalizations being observed in Alberta is lower than what has been projected through this data, said Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, in her provincial COVID-19 update on Thursday. 

Experts also compiled an “elevated” scenario that follows infection rates seen in Hubei, the province in China where the coronavirus first detected in December, which assumes every person infected spreads the virus to two people. 

That model would see cases of COVID-19 peak in early May, with more than a million people infected and between 500 and 6,600 total deaths. 

With more equipment on order and plans to increase hospital capacity – including announcing new temporary expansion to the Peter Lougheed Centre in Calgary that will add 6,000 square feet of temporary space to house 100 more COVID-19 care beds – Kenney said he expects the province to be well able to cope even with that elevated level of demand. 

The number of people infected may seem high, but that’s because Alberta is basing these projections on suspected infections, not just those formally confirmed in a lab, Kenney said. Emerging research suggests most people infected with COVID-19 will either have mild symptoms, or perhaps not have any symptoms at all. 

Had Albertans not taken aggressive public health measures, modelling shows the province would be facing a peak right with 1.6 million Albertans – one in three – infected with COVID-19, leaving between 16,000 and 32,000 dead. 

“The consequences would be truly catastrophic in terms of lost life," Kenney said. 

In Ontario, modelling predicted that had no action been taken, 300,000 people would be infected and 6,000 people would have died. Their projections credit swift public health action with preventing 220,000 cases, saving 4,400 lives. 

National modelling shows as many as 300,000 Canadians could have died had no action been taken, and 80 per cent of Canadians would have been infected. Projections released Thursday estimate between 934,000 and 1,879,000 people in Canada will catch COVID-19 – between 2.5 and five per cent of the population – and anywhere from 11,000 to 22,000 people could lose their lives. 

Hinshaw acknowledged Thursday that public health measures have been disruptive, but reiterated the importance continued discipline in following hygiene and social distancing recommendations to continue to slow the spread of COVID-19. 

“You are saving lives,” said Hinshaw.