A five-year fiscal forecast has council contemplating possible changes to St. Albert’s capital plans.
At council’s standing committee of the whole meeting on Monday, city manager Patrick Draper presented a high-level overview of the next five years.
That overview included projections for possible tax increases. Those increases are based on several assumptions about possible inflation as well as other cost increases, and presupposes that council proceeds with the 10-year capital plan as it is currently written.
Those tax increases are certainly higher than this year’s municipal portion, which was a decrease of 0.4 per cent. The forecast projected a 4.3-per-cent increase in 2017, an 8.2-per-cent increase in 2018, a 5.8 per cent increase in 2019, a 4.2-per-cent increase in 2020 and 4.7-per-cent in 2021.
The numbers are a combination of the amounts needed to maintain current service levels and the impact of borrowing for a shortfall in the capital budget.
However, those numbers are tentative and will likely change. Coun. Tim Osborne noted that a possible tax increase for 2016 was hacked down significantly by the time council was done deliberations in December.
“I think what we've seen the past few years is those preliminary numbers can change very dramatically,” Osborne said.
Council was largely appreciative of the forecast. But the results could mean council takes a hard look at its capital plans, including the new branch library, arena and possible new aquatic space.
“We can’t build all three,” said Coun. Bob Russell.
Coun. Cathy Heron said council committed to some big items during the 2016 budget talks such as the new branch library or a new sheet of ice.
“It’s going to be difficult in my opinion to put the brakes on some of them,” Heron said.
Coun. Sheena Hughes said the forecast was probably the worst case scenario and doesn’t include the savings city staff often find each year.
“It was a nice snapshot for us to have as a starting discussion point,” Hughes said.
Mayor Nolan Crouse said he’ll be submitting a notice of motion that would initiate a survey aimed at getting public input and priorities when it comes to big capital projects prior to this fall’s budget deliberations.
“This highlights the need for us to get some public input on the bigger projects of the library, of the arena and of aquatics,” he said.
Draper said the forecast includes several inputs, including the possible impacts of the new carbon levy and minimum wage increases.
He pointed out in past years where there have been bigger bumps to the tax rate they have normally been linked to new facilities coming online, so there is often a reason.
The point of the presentation was to spark a conversation with council about what they would like to do with the information, Draper said.
