St. Albert could see as many as 50,000 new residents by 2044, according to updated growth forecasts being developed by a regional planning board task force.
As part of an interim review of its 35-year growth plan, a member-based task force from the Edmonton Metropolitan Regional Board (EMRB) chaired by St. Albert Mayor Cathy Heron is updating the forecast employment, population, and housing growth for municipalities throughout the Edmonton region.
The update, although still in the draft stage, was included in a report presented to the EMRB's task force during a meeting on Feb. 24.
The report suggests St. Albert could see an average annual population growth as high as 2.6 per cent over the next 21 years, bringing the city's population to 124,881 by 2044.
A more conservative estimate says St. Albert's average annual population growth could be as low as 1.1 per cent, bringing the population to 89,370 by 2044. St. Albert's population was 69,789 in 2021.
The report also calculates employment growth by analyzing the expected growth for industries with substantial operations in the region. The employment growth forecast doesn't represent growth in local jobs, but rather the total number of residents with jobs.
The report says St. Albert could have average annual employment growth as high 1.6 per cent, bringing the total number of employed residents to 36,865 by 2044. A lower estimate is 0.3 per cent annually, meaning by 2044 just 1,941 additional residents would be employed compared to the 2021 total of 25,867.
St. Albert will need about 3,000 additional apartments and 18,500 single-detached homes by 2044 to support the higher population growth estimate, the EMRB report says. For the more conservative forecast, the city will need about 1,000 more apartments and 7,500 single-detached homes.
In an interview, Mayor Heron said she expects St. Albert's growth will be somewhere in the middle of the two estimate ranges.
"I think even the low numbers are quite low," she said. "I think we're going to see more into mid to high rates that were projected."
When asked if preparing for population growth or employment growth should be the first step, Heron said she thinks the city needs to balance the needs of both.
"I don't think you do one to the exclusion of the other," Heron said.
"In the end, most municipalities want non-residential development that offsets the residential, right, but to get there you need to bring in residential because the [big investors] are going to look for the workforce at the same time."
The report also includes growth forecasts for other EMRB member municipalities, such as Morinville and Sturgeon County.
In Morinville, the EMRB forecast population growth of between 3,000 and 7,000 by 2044, and between 500 and 2,000 more employed residents.
In Sturgeon County, the report forecasts maximum growth of nearly 30,000 by 2044, and a minimum increase of about 11,000. Employment is expected to increase between 2,500 and 7,500.
Morinville Mayor Simon Boersma, who serves on the task force, and Sturgeon County Mayor Alanna Hnatiw did not respond to The Gazette's interview request.
The report does not explain exactly what factors led to the high- and low-growth scenarios for each municipality; however, the task force heard on Feb. 24 the consultant group undertaking the update will include the information in a future draft.
The draft report and growth estimates for all EMRB municipalities can be found online at the EMRB's website by accessing the task force's Feb. 24 meeting agenda.
