Electoral reform - who cares?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised that the October federal election would be the last time Canadians cast a ballot under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

Changing the electoral system was part of the Liberal Party platform, and, with the installation of a minister of democratic institutions, appears to be something the prime minister might be serious about.

But electoral system reform in Canada is not a new idea. Not even close.

“I think it’s important to remember and to recognize that it has been an issue off and on for a century,” said Steve Patten, a political science professor at the University of Alberta.

Before the First World War, there were people raising the issue. After the First World War, there were people raising the issue. It cropped up again in the mid-20th century, it was an issue in the 1970s, 1990s and it’s an issue again now, Patten said.

“It’s not something new. The reason it emerges is because a single member plurality system causes problems that people occasionally want addressed,” Patten said.

Both Patten and University of Calgary political scientist Melanee Thomas point out that other systems have occasionally been used on the municipal and provincial levels in Canada, though the first-past-the-post system has always been in place for federal elections.

“The two other systems that Canada’s used in the past are the alternative vote and the single transferable vote,” Thomas said.

But despite the occasional push for electoral reform – some provinces have in the last couple decades looked at switching up the first-past-the-post system – the single member plurality system has largely reigned supreme.

“The main reason we don’t get change is because it benefits the party that wins. The party that wins, even if they talked about change beforehand, they’re not going to be very interested in it once they’re in power,” Patten said.

Plus, there’s no vocal majority of voters calling for reform. Instead, reform has been the passion project of a few over the years.

“One of the reasons it’s kept alive is because there’s small pockets of people for whom this is a really important issue,” Patten said. Many of the groups that argue for electoral reform tend to be multi-partisan, he said.

“It’s something that spans across party lines and interests,” Patten said.

Thomas agreed electoral system reform is often an issue for a small number of Canadians, often people who don’t feel represented by the results. She pointed out that conservatives in Alberta suddenly were concerned about popular vote percentages after the devastating win by the NDP in 2015.

Former St. Albert MP Brent Rathgeber said this ended up on the Liberal platform thanks to the youthful demographic Trudeau was targeting. It’s a popular idea amongst the “social media, tech savvy and under 35 demographic” he said, along with suggestions like legalizing marijuana.

“I think there is enough of a social media and younger constituency that supported him and supported the Liberal Party that are going to remind him of this one,” Rathgeber said.

He said Trudeau, starting the election as the leader of the third party and not predicted to win, was able to promise a lot without expecting to deliver.

“That gives you the liberty of promising the moon, because the chances of you ever having to deliver the moon are quite remote when you don’t start in the pole position or in second place,” Rathgeber said.

But do people really want a change?

If a survey conducted in November by Abacus Data conducted for the Broadbent Institute is any indication, many Canadians feel some kind of tweaks are needed and many think the Liberals should keep that promise.

Just under 3,000 Canadians were surveyed, and nine per cent of those polled thought a complete change is needed to the electoral system, 33 per cent felt major changes are warranted, 41 per cent think minor changes are in order while only 17 per cent thought the current system works well and doesn’t need change.

The data showed those who either live in Quebec or vote for the NDP, Green Party or Bloc Quebecois were more likely to think the major changes were needed, though one-third of those who voted for the Liberals or Conservatives also thought there should be big tweaks.

Those aged 45 or older were more likely to think the current system should stay put.

But the numbers shifted when asked if the Liberals should keep their promise to change the system. Less than one-quarter said keep the existing system, while 32 per cent had no clear views and 44 per cent thought the Trudeau government should keep its promise.

So will they?

Thomas thinks that depends on what electoral system options are on the table. She predicted that if the Liberals can’t install a preferential balloting system, a system she said would likely benefit that party, the second choice of many voters, they might leave change alone.

“I would actually be surprised if we actually got any change at the end of the day,” she said.

Patten was more optimistic, predicting we’ll “probably” get electoral change this time around.

“Justin Trudeau has said ‘yes we will,’ and I think there’s a very strong possibility that we will, but it may get bogged down in details and process,” Patten said.

A written statement from Laura LeBel, a spokesperson for Minister of Democratic Institutions Maryam Monsef, said the first-past-the-post electoral system is from the “distant past and it is eroding public confidence in elections and voting.”

She said there has been a commitment to convene an all-party committee that will ensure a “wide range of electoral reform measures are fairly studied and considered.” There will be a national engagement process to allow Canadians to make their views known, she said.

“Together, we are going to examine proportional representation and preferential voting systems,” LeBel said. “We are also going to investigate new approaches, such as mandatory voting and online voting, to see what further improvements can be brought to the way elections are conducted in Canada.”

There are big questions facing the Liberals and the country as the question of electoral reform is contemplated. Will there be a referendum? What about the failed attempts at reform in Ontario and B.C.? Would changing the system bring any meaningful change to how politics are conducted in this country? Why do people want change?

Patten said changing the electoral system could cause a change in political behaviour. The nature of those changes would depend on the system picked.

Rathgeber says how a legislator acts once they’re elected is much more important than how they get there.

“As long as they’re mere shills and mouthpieces for their party and their party leadership, I think that makes them poor representatives irrespective of how they’re chosen,” he said.

As for why people want change, some take issue with systems that manufacture majorities.

Rathgeber pointed out Trudeau’s 2015 win and Stephen Harper’s 2011 majority pulled about the same amount of the popular vote.

“They’re very similar. I think they both got about 39 per cent of the vote, and that translated into 60 per cent of the seats and 100 per cent of the power,” Rathgeber said.

Systems that appear to manufacture majorities can limit accountability of elected officials, Thomas said, as some stick close to the party line in hopes of a cabinet seat. “That accountability measure that’s built into the system doesn’t work well because of how we’ve done it year after year after year,” she said.

But first-past-the-post isn’t the only system that can manufacture a majority, she said. Other systems can have good points too. For instance, more proportional systems can help increase diversity when it comes to gender and ethnic representation, Thomas said.

She hopes the need to represent the different regions of Canada isn’t lost on the architects of any new system that is developed for federal elections.

“This is the thing in Canada, you can’t not represent geography,” she said. “Canadian politics is so structured on that, you can’t get rid of it.”