The electoral winds of change are blowing across Alberta, and when next Tuesday’s vote is said and done, the winds may very well have carved an entirely new political landscape.
This phenomenon, however, is not new. These same winds were howling in 2012. The polls told us the PCs were dead and the upstart Wildrose was going to put an end to 40 years of Tory rule. People wanted change. They were sick and tired of the establishment and its entitlement. Then, the PCs received their Christmas present early when a couple of Wildrose candidates opened their mouths, giving the electorate a reason to pause … the PCs snatched victory from certain defeat.
We don’t expect a repeat of 2012, but if history has shown us one thing, it’s that many Albertans were prepared to vote in protest against a political party rather than for ideology or policy – the future of Alberta. Voting against something rather than for something can be perilous as emotion can overtake judgment. Do the Progressive Conservatives deserve to be in the precarious position they are today? When the dust settles, Jim Prentice will have to look in the mirror and answer that question.
This election is, however, about a lot more than a popularity contest. The state of the economy and how this province moves forward with the sharp drop in oil prices is at the forefront of peoples’ minds. The three frontrunners – the PCs, Wildrose and NDP – have different opinions as to how much Alberta’s businesses should contribute. Prentice has been widely criticized for holding the line on corporate taxes, with opponents saying he’s in the back pocket of big business. Would an increase in the corporate tax rate have a negative impact on the economy? Rachel Notley doesn’t think so. Her NDP party would raise corporate taxes from the current 10 per cent to 12 per cent. Jean’s Wildrose would end what it calls “corporate welfare subsidies” and not increase taxes.
There is also a philosophical divide when it comes to managing Alberta’s natural resources. Notley has said an NDP government will hold a royalty review to determine if Albertans are getting the best rate of return. Critics of this notion will remember how well that went for former Tory premier Ed Stelmach. Prentice and Jean say they’d maintain the current royalty regime for oil and gas.
Notley has also stated she questions the Keystone XL pipeline project because, as she puts it, “thousands and thousands of jobs are going to Texas. That’s what is going on in that pipeline.” She’d prefer Alberta’s raw bitumen be processed here. There are, however, huge capital costs involved in building upgraders, and therefore it may be questionable whether Alberta can sell the finished product at competitive prices. She’s also against the Northern Gateway pipeline because “there’s just too much environmental sensitivity there.” Jean says Notley’s stance is an attack on the industry and its jobs. His party is in favour of pursuing both Keystone XL and Gateway as is Prentice who has been a dogged proponent of getting Alberta’s raw bitumen to market.
Election day is drawing close, and Albertans need to cut through the hyperbole. The parties have made it clear what they stand for. So should Albertans.
