The argument could be made that it doesn’t matter who’s running the province right now – the job has become next to impossible as low oil prices continue to batter Alberta’s economy.
Supporters of Premier Rachel Notley would certainly make that case in the face of her latest job approval rating. The numbers from the Angus Reid Institute, released last week, show Notley’s approval rating has slipped 22 points since June of last year. The premier now has the support of 31 per cent of Albertans, with 62 per cent disapproving of her performance.
Indeed, it’s a difficult time to govern in Alberta. Economists are in agreement that the recession gripping Alberta is likely to go down as one of the most severe in the province’s history. Alberta’s GDP is anticipated to contract at least two per cent in 2016, adding up to an unthinkable 5.5-6 per cent loss since the downturn began just two years ago.
It is, however, all too convenient to blame Notley’s poor approval rating solely on the economy. The province of Saskatchewan has also had its foundation shaken by low oil prices, yet its premier still enjoys an approval rating of 57 per cent – the highest in Canada. Brad Wall might be even more popular in Alberta. The pro-business, straight-shooting premier is scheduled to be the guest of honour at a Fraser Institute dinner in Calgary at the end of October. There’s an array of sponsorship packages available – including a platinum package for $100,000 and a gold table sponsorship opportunity for $50,000 – and the event is completely sold out.
Notley, by contrast, has seen her broad support disappear. With less than a third of Albertans approving of her job performance, nearly all but her core supporters have deserted Notley. Timing is everything. It’s not just a bad time to be governing; Albertans are sending the message that it’s a bad time to introduce policies they view as harmful to an already fragile economy.
The minimum wage increase is one of those policies that Notley’s NDP government is forging ahead with, despite the backlash from Alberta businesses. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business says the increase to $15 an hour by Oct. 1, 2018 will result in reduced hours or layoffs for one in four businesses in Alberta. A recent survey of more than 1,000 businesses showed 89 per cent did not support increases in the minimum wage during an economic downturn. Detractors say the increase is too much, too fast, yet this Saturday it goes up another dollar, to $12.20 per hour.
The NDP is also forging ahead on its carbon tax plans in January, which opponents say is just another tax introduced at the worst possible time. The carbon tax, coupled with the corporate tax increase and the passage of Bill 6 – the controversial legislation that makes it mandatory for paid farm workers to be covered under occupational health and safety regulations – have added unwanted layers of costs to Albertans at a time of high unemployment and ever-thinning margins for businesses.
Most Albertans would agree that there’s never a good time to raise taxes, but Notley’s NDP government couldn’t pick a worse time.
