If the holiday season is indeed merry in Alberta this year, it looks more and more that it will only be that way for many people if they take care to appreciate the small things the season brings – a child’s smile, a good meal, the joy of making a loved one happy or helping out someone in need.
A report from the Conference Board of Canada predicts modest growth in Alberta next year, largely due to the fact that the provincial oilpatch still sells oceans of the resource. However, that news was tempered Monday by international high quality crude oil prices in the $37 range, meaning much of Alberta’s heavy oil and bitument output is selling around $24. Add to that an unemployment rate in the range of seven per cent and as the board predicts, we may not see real recovery for years.
Add to this mix a loonie that has dropped below 74 cents for the first time since 2009 and a stock market that also appears to be slowly tanking, though it is still far above the bottom it hit during the Great Recession. Some economists will try to craft silk purses from these sows’ ears, no doubt citing the benefits to some sector or other, but as we head into another year, only a fool wouldn’t be worried. As the trickle down effect of the oilpatch downturn continues to hammer our provincial economy, it is clear nobody will be spared the pain. This news is not good for Alberta families, seniors, or businesses, as evidenced by a drastic drop in Alberta car sales reported for the province this fall. Everybody will hurt.
Our new governments, in both Edmonton and Ottawa must also start displaying absolute caution in the way they spend money. Both Premier Rachel Notley’s NDP and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have both announced big plans with bigger deficits. After all, Franklin Roosevelt put America to work during the Great Depression with massive infrastructure projects such as the Hoover and Grand Coulee dams. As uplifting as such history lessons may be, there is no guarantee the policy will continue to reap huge benefits. We live in different times, and without a strong recovery on the horizon, massive deficits do run the risk of creating overextended governments crippled by their own spending. Notley and Trudeau have both already introduced policies that will definitely have a depressing effect on the economy. It’s not the right time to be increasing taxes and other costs for consumers and business and both these leaders are on that path. If things go wrong and the money doesn’t begin to flow again, they could fail, and nobody needs that. Careless governments have hurt us all before. We really don’t need for it to happen again.
Still, the holiday season is fast approaching and without some celebration a glum situation will only seem worse. We should all think back to the stories we heard from our parents, grandparents and great-grandparents who survived a time when things were exponentially worse than they are today. It was a time when mothers stretched their budgets to keep a pot of soup on the stove and a place at their tables for down-on-their-luck strangers. People came together. We don’t live in those times, but remember, the food banks are giving out almost 25 per cent more than they were a year ago. Their clients could well be your friends and neighbours.
