While it would be a stretch to suggest the next leader of the Progressive Conservative party has big shoes to fill, whoever does take on the job faces a Herculean task both inside and outside the party faithful.
Alberta’s political landscape underwent major upheaval this week when Premier Ed Stelmach announced he plans to retire after the current term. The news took the public by surprise and even parts of the Tory caucus, which has suffered from infighting over next year’s proposed budget. Reports suggest far right elements of the party led by Finance Minister Ted Morton were unhappy with yet another billion-dollar deficit budget, while those in Stelmach’s corner favour a balance of cuts and continued calculated spending where it most counts, namely health care, education and infrastructure.
While Stelmach has not indicated when exactly he plans to step away from the premiership, the pressure is already mounting for him to step aside quickly so his successor can be chosen and find his or her feet before the next general election. And though it might be tempting to leave the timetable up to Stelmach as a thank you for his 25 years of public service, the sooner he ends his unfortunate reign as leader, the better the PCs' chances become of extending their 40-plus years in government.
If the Tory faithful tired of Ralph Klein as premier and leader five years ago when the Teflon king’s popularity dipped to a then-uncomfortable 60.8 per cent support, the grassroots must be salivating to crown a new leader in the wake of Stelmach, whose polling popularity has dipped to around 20 per cent, well below the party overall at 34 per cent, according to one recent poll. Since winning a massive majority in 2008 and a leadership review in 2009, Stelmach has sunk deep and fast into a political quagmire stickier than any bitumen mined in Fort McMurray.
Stelmach’s missteps have been frequent and much criticized, such as his royalty review that was touted as a fairer approach for Albertans before it was watered down due to pressure from the oil and gas sector. That failure created a rift between Calgary’s oilpatch and the farmer-turned MLA from northern Alberta, one that’s never healed and gave rise to the Wildrose Alliance. Once an upstart, the Wildrose has blossomed as a home for the far right and disenfranchised, its charismatic leader the antithesis of the awkward premier. The Wildrose’s momentum, consecutive billion-dollar deficit budgets and the Tories’ inability to keep health care fiascos from the headlines left Stelmach where he is today — the modern day Don Getty. Even his departure to prevent the caucus from fracturing over the budget went awry. Stelmach’s insistence to stay in the red until the economy improves all but guaranteed a split from Morton and the far right.
The problem for the grassroots is where to turn? Venturing right towards Morton in the hopes of reconnecting with former party supporters now in bed with the Wildrose? That direction could turn off more moderate Red Tories and lose some urban ridings to more centrist parties. Sticking more or less centre-right and painting the Wildrose as extremists could be the easier fight given the Liberals’ disappearance in the polls and the Alberta Party’s inexperience. Of course in Alberta there’s more than ideology at play and supporters will have to decide if their votes are best placed with Calgary or Edmonton, urban or rural. The 2006 race proved avoiding polarizing figures in favour of compromise doesn’t necessarily work in the long run. Perhaps that’s Stelmach’s greatest legacy.
