Ethnic feeling has been at the root of much of the world’s misery in the last century. The First World War involved both ethnic-based national states and multi-ethnic empires. Despite its ideological overtones, the Second World War featured ethnic attitudes. These were prominent in the titanic struggle between Germany and the Soviet Union – both in the front line fighting and behind the lines. Part of the latter included much of Germany’s murderous anti-Semitic campaign. The world since then has featured a lot of ethnic-rooted violence. The only non-ethnic wars of wide significance have been North Korea’s invasion of South Korea in 1950, and the continuation of the Vietnam War after the United States pulled out in 1973. Both were ideologically based struggles within the same ethnic group. The quick re-unification of Germany in 1990 showed how a sense of ethnic identification can survive years of ideologically maintained separation.
The present crisis between Russia and Ukraine is at root a confrontation between two ethnic groups who have a long, complex history rooted in one of the last of the multi-ethnic empires. In 1991, a majority of the vote in ethnic Russian-dominated eastern Ukraine favoured separation from the Soviet Union, though with lower turnout and smaller majorities than elsewhere. Ukraine’s path since as an independent nation has been troubled, and clearly a growing disillusionment with being a Russian minority in an ethnic Ukrainian dominated state has blossomed. To date, the confrontation has not degenerated into the genocidal fury, which marked the break-up of Yugoslavia. Hopefully it will stay short of that.
This is the first ethnic confrontation since the Second World War involving large, powerful modern states with top-level military technology and expertise. And in lining up on Ukraine’s side, it would be the first one in which western interveners would lack an initial total air superiority – and have nuclear weapons on the other side. Ukraine voluntarily gave up nuclear arms from 1994 to 1996; there are some there now who urge their resumption. For that matter, though, Russians know how well Ukrainians can fight – 70 years ago they fought as one in the same army. Recognition that conflict there would be major league has undoubtedly underlain the lack of any significant western military response on behalf of Ukraine.
Taking on Russia – which historically didn’t turn out well for Napoleon and Hitler – would not be like taking on people over whom you have a distinct technological military edge, as was the case in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now in the fight against ISIS. As Canada has reached a stage where federal cabinet ministers are proudly announcing each bomb dropped on a murderous rabble in arms, it is worth remembering that if we get involved in a ground fight against Russia we are unlikely to come out of the struggle with only 158 deaths over twelve years, as Canada incurred in Afghanistan. This one would be big time.
Writer David Haas is a long term St. Albert resident.
