Advance polling for the Conservative Party leadership race began this week and the potential winner is anyone’s guess.
There are 13 candidates on the ballot. Party members will vote with a ranked ballot with up to 10 candidates and each electoral district worth 100 points. The amount of candidates and the peculiarities in the voting system make it hard to predict who is going to win.
The only name well-known by Canadians was Kevin O’Leary and he bowed out of the race Wednesday stating that he didn’t think he could gain traction in Quebec in a federal election. O’Leary is right, but it’s a wonder it took him this long to realize it. Quebec is a French-speaking province and the man doesn’t speak French. In a country with two official languages, this was a sticking point for many.
O’Leary’s presence throughout the race has been a distraction. He skipped debates and spent a lot of his time in the United States instead of the country he was hoping to lead. Many have speculated that he was never serious about leading the party – after all, he would not commit to moving back to Canada even if he won the race.
Never one to play by the rules, O’Leary dropped out of the race after the drop-out deadline meaning his name will still be on the ballot for Conservative voters. There were many other qualified nominees, but they didn’t receive nearly as much attention. O’Leary was a front-runner though and his departure from the race changes the playing field. Unfortunately there’s not a lot of opportunity for other candidates to gain momentum as the debates are completed and the voting period is beginning.
While the Conservative Party is using the same voting process it did in 2004, when it elected Stephen Harper, it’s not a process that’s well suited for a plethora of candidates. O’Leary has given his support to another front-runner, Maxime Bernier, but that’s no guarantee that he can win. Bernier has easily been the top fundraiser and is likely to get many first place votes, but his Libertarian views make him a polarizing figure and he may not receive many second or third place votes or be appealing to a broad range of Canadians should be win. That leaves the door open for “secondary” candidates like Andrew Scheer, Lisa Raitt or St. Albert MP Michael Cooper’s preferred candidate: Erin O’Toole.
This hasn’t been a great race for the Conservative Party and hopefully the format will be reviewed in the future. Even without O’Leary it would be hard to have a front-runner with so many candidates still in the race. But the format does little to persuade candidates to drop out.
Whatever happens, it’s important that the Conservative Party chooses a leader that conservatives across the country can unite under. Once the leadership race concludes on May 27 the real work will begin.
