Earlier this month, Stephen Harper became the longest-serving prime minister of a serving minority government, surpassing the previous titleholder, Lester Pearson. While Harper has survived his share of confidence votes and minor scandals, his political endurance can be attributed more to the ineptitude of the opposition and apathy of the public than any particular strength in governing.
While poll numbers again show the Conservatives flirting with majority territory if a vote was held today, it is just another ebb in the ongoing rollercoaster of public opinion that has dominated Harper’s two-year-plus tenure. Inevitably once Conservative numbers start to peak, some kind of minor scandal, whether it be mandatory census forms, possible detainee abuse, fighter jet purchases or problems within his own cabinet will scuttle any chance Harper has of a majority in the House of Commons. Pair that with an official opposition party that has failed to gain any traction whatsoever with Canadians and a leader in Michael Ignatieff who is becoming increasingly unpopular within his own party, and Harper’s tenancy appears secure, even if Ignatieff is already stating his opposition to the 2011 budget.
Harper has told the media in excerpts released from a Christmas interview scheduled to air on Saturday that there will be no “poison pills” in the next budget, set for debate next March, no items or actions so objectionable as to force the opposition to vote him down, but even that is an understatement. The Liberals have promised to scuttle the sole-source $16-billion purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, as well as oppose corporate tax cuts expected to be a part of the budget. The Conservatives say they want to create jobs and make Canada more business friendly. The Liberals want government to do a better job helping families.
With Ignatieff’s opposition to the fighter purchase well known, the “poison pill” has already been planted. Any attempt by Harper to extend his minority government legacy will depend on both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois. It will create another round of rampant media speculation that, if history holds true, will create nothing more than some sabre-rattling and enough votes to sail the budget through Parliament. It has become the hallmark of Harper’s leadership — ultimately every opposition threat becomes much ado about nothing.
Canada is locked in a stale political climate that benefits Harper and his cabinet. So long as voters see more potential harm than good in the same old opposition faces, they will continue to support the government they know instead of something new yet equally uninspiring. If the status quo is Harper’s status quo, then there’s no reason to believe we should expect anything else until an election becomes legally necessary.
We can shrug off monstrous deficits, contempt of Parliament and big-ticket military purchases because it is what we have come to expect from our government, especially in this last year alone. Despite the disjointed noise of the opposition, there is no reason to expect 2011 to be any different.
