The Alberta Liberals had enough to worry about before the embarrassing split from one of its highest profile MLAs, Dave Taylor. Two years removed from a crushing election defeat, the Liberals are struggling to remain the main voice of opposition in Alberta politics. The defection of Taylor, a well spoken MLA and former leadership contender, leaves the party with a messy internal strife, including some damning darts aimed at Liberal leader David Swann, none of which will help a party already challenged at the polls.
Taylor resigned from the Liberal caucus Monday, but not before throwing Swann under the bus. “The trouble with today’s Alberta Liberals is that nobody is leading, nobody is following and nobody will get out of the way,” the Calgary-Currie MLA told reporters Monday. If that wasn’t enough, “David Swann’s Alberta Liberals are not talking about the things Albertans want to talk about, that they want their politicians to talk about.”
Taylor has opted to sit as an independent, fuelling speculation his political destiny lies elsewhere, perhaps with another centrist provincial party. His defection creates a hole in an already miniscule caucus and damages Swann’s credibility. He, like his leadership predecessors has had his share of problems finding common ground with Albertans.
As Taylor pointed out in his statement, the Liberals have not exactly captured the imagination of Albertans. If it weren’t for seat totals, there would be no telling the Liberals are indeed Alberta’s official opposition. When it comes to getting out in front of an issue, they consistently lag behind the NDP and the Wildrose Alliance, two parties that have made a lot of noise in opposition despite having just five MLAs between them.
The Liberals are as far removed as possible from the party’s heyday in the early 1990s when, under the late Laurence DĂ©cor, they took 32 seats in the legislature. The air was ripe for change in the lead-up to the 2008 election when Ed Stomach’s Progressive Conservatives showed signs of vulnerability. But instead of viewing the Liberals as an alternative choice for government, 60 per cent of voters opted to stay at home on election day. The party lost 16 seats, precipitating the resignation of leader Kevin Taft, a hard-working MLA who came across as stuffy and lacked the personal charisma necessary to win over a significant percentage of the electorate, rural Albertans in particular.
Unfortunately for the Liberals, Swann hasn’t fared much better. The Liberals have showed no signs of a bounce back. Unlike the Tories or even the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals did not see an upswing in support from its leadership race when Swann defeated Taylor. The party has failed to take advantage of cracks forming in the Progressive Conservative base, where dissatisfaction with Stelmach is growing.
Where the Liberals have failed, the Wildrose has succeeded. The party has a charismatic leader in Danielle Smith, whose communication abilities have punctured holes in the Tory dynasty. The Wildrose has been highly visible and in front of the issues, most notably natural resource royalties where the party helped precipitate Stelmach’s recent flip-flop on the rates. The Wildrose are gaining on the Tories in public opinion, just four points back with 30 per cent support according to an Environics poll last month. The more established opposition Liberals in comparison came in third at 23 per cent.
While those numbers show the Liberals still have solid support, the party should have no illusions about its election prospects. The Liberal brand, never popular with Albertans, does not appear to be a serious threat to form a government any time soon, giving rise to a movement among centrist Albertans. Taylor might not be the only one to leave the Liberals between now and the next election.
