For those who like their politics with a touch of drama, the current election campaign in British Columbia has been a good show. When it began in mid-April, the New Democrats under leader Adrian Dix were riding a comfortable 17-point lead in the polls over Christie Clark and the Liberals. But in the last few days, the gap has narrowed, the suspense has spiked and pundits are asking: “Could it happen? Could the NDP actually lose?”
The short answer is yes, though the chances are more theoretical than real. If you’re inclined to place a bet, put your money on the New Democrats. Still, it’s remarkable that the Liberals are even in the race given their standing of not so long ago when they were wildly disliked. In fairness, they came by their unpopularity honestly. After 12 years in power, first under Gordon Campbell and now under Clark, the Liberals are a spent force, with a record that runs from a spectacular flip-flop on taxes (the hated Harmonized Sales Tax) to growing piles of debt and now, in this campaign, iffy promises of fiscal probity.
Given all that, one might have reasonably expected the election to turn on the Liberal record of incompetence, but that’s not what has happened. The key issue in the campaign is not what the Liberals did but what the NDP might do. The reasons for this are twofold. First, from the opening bell, the Liberals have remained resolutely on-message, repeating at every opportunity that the NDP will raise taxes, spend like drunken sailors, deter investment and paralyze the economy. In truth, the NDP’s economic blueprint is neither radical nor unexpected, but this is politics and the Liberals are playing nasty, mixing standard political rhetoric with distortions and outright lies to demonize their opponents.
The second reason is that Dix, who has generally run a sober, straightforward campaign, made a serious blunder that played into the Liberals’ hands. Coming into the campaign, the NDP leader said he would not take a stand on plans by Kinder Morgan to almost triple the capacity of its pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby, which in turn would increase the tanker traffic out of Vancouver. Kinder Morgan has yet to file an application with the National Energy Board, and Dix initially said he would wait until this was done before making a decision. Early in the campaign, however, he announced his opposition to the pipeline, earning plaudits from environmentalists, but leaving himself open to claims that he and his party will impoverish the province. This gaffe and the drumbeat of Liberal warnings about the economy are the most likely causes for the shifting polls, though it’s doubtful they will cost the NDP the election.
Some observations. First, election campaigns matter. Second, expect the NDP to be more aggressive between now and voting day on May 14. Third, Alison Redford’s dream of a National Energy Strategy is as dead as a duck in a tailings pond. Even if the Liberals win, Clark has made it clear she is no fan of pipelines, or Alberta for that matter. Whatever the decision in B.C., the prognosis for this side of the Rockies is grim.
