Ranking in the top 10 of most lists is positive for a municipality, especially St. Albert. But a closer look at the facts and figures of our current-day city shows that our most recent placing might not be grounded in reality.
On Sunday The Financial Post ranked St. Albert as one of the top 10 cities in which to invest in real estate over the next five years. The city came in seventh on the list. In Where to buy: Top 10 cities, the Post, citing information from the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN), based such rankings on planned transportation upgrades and population and job growth higher than the provincial average. According to Don Campbell, president of REIN, St. Albert scores high because of its proximity to Anthony Henday Drive, which will bring people, jobs and companies to town. We have also apparently done much to add to our industrial and commercial job base. While REIN claims to provide “brutal” and honest information out of its head office in Calgary, it is evident it is using sweeping generalities — and sometimes bald assumption — to arrive at its conclusions.
The completion of the ring road next year will bring more traffic into St. Albert and help drive value of property in that area. The Gold Dust Casino is leveraging future expansion on its proximity to the ring road connectors to it, and developers in South Campbell and South Riel should realize some benefit from it. This road will drive more than just commuters — it will help drive the economy that surrounds it.
It’s a different story for investment away from the ring road. The idea that individuals, jobs and companies will come running to areas away from the Henday is a rather optimistic stretch. Yes, there are plenty of available single-family homes on the market, rents are high and property values are good. But St. Albert has been staring a lack of industrial land and large, serviced commercial parcels in the face for several years. Even with the annexation of Sturgeon County lands complete, nothing has changed. There has been zero movement on increasing the industrial tax base in St. Albert, highlighted when city council voted down an industrial park in the city’s northwest earlier this year. The city has said expansion into the annexed lands would take a minimum two years, putting most new development outside REIN’s five-year horizon.
There will be no explosion of industrial land anytime soon because the city has not yet come up with a way to service the annexed lands despite efforts with landowners to do so. Only smaller parcels of land are available in places like Campbell Business Park, but that’s not enough, according to recent reports, to stop at least three St. Albert-based companies looking to expand, from moving into Edmonton because there are no local options. The assertion by the Post and REIN that St. Albert is “adding to its industrial and commercial job base” when no significant projects in recent history have come on stream is simply false, rendering speculation of companies relocating here equally untrue.
St. Albert’s population growth is outpacing the provincial average, according to the preliminary results from the last municipal census conducted this year. Yet of the 60,138 individuals that call St. Albert home, 26 per cent are over the age of 55, an increase of more than two per cent over the last two years. Forty-one per cent of the population are eager 25 to 55’ers, but the number of individuals under 19 actually dropped two per cent since the last census. Young people — the future engine of the economy — can’t afford to live here, with many “local” employees of St. Albert actually living in north Edmonton.
Yes real estate investments are potentially good in St. Albert and the Henday will play a major role for developers and businesses with good access to it. But there is little else if you are looking in the commercial and industrial sector or new home construction. It was a nice thought, but REIN’s ranking simply isn’t brutal and honest enough.
