Sunday, March 2 is a big day for some people Now that the BAFTAs are over, I consider it safe enough to put on a pot of coffee, crunch some numbers, and figure out who (and what) I would predict to come home with little golden statuettes come end of
Sunday, March 2 is a big day for some people
Now that the BAFTAs are over, I consider it safe enough to put on a pot of coffee, crunch some numbers, and figure out who (and what) I would predict to come home with little golden statuettes come end of day Sunday, March 2.
Yes, these are my Oscar picks. It's an annual tradition that exists mostly in my brain where I take my best guesses at winners based on what other trophies they've won, popularity across the public and critical spectrum, and... oh yes, the actual quality of the performance or film itself.
Please keep in mind that I haven't seen all of the films that are up for this year's awards ceremony. Not even close. Try as I might, it'll never happen. However, I have watched many movies and so I believe I'm a pretty astute observer of things.
I am only really interested in what I consider the big categories (awards for actor and actress - including supporting players - plus original and adapted screenplays, director and picture) but I will have some other thoughts to add in about other awards and the Academy Awards in general.
I used the following Internet resources to compile this blog:
http://www.imdb.com/oscars/nominations/?ref_=rto_3p_vi2
http://oscar.go.com/nominees
https://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/86/nominees.html
http://en.wikipedia.org
For each category, I'll offer my top two or three choices, so you – the astute reader – can also grade me on my prognostication skills.
As always, I'll try to keep this as brief as possible. Let's see how well that works out.
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), or Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
#1: Jared Leto
#2: Jonah Hill
#3: Bradley Cooper
I would pick Jared Leto over all others at this point even though I haven't seen Dallas Buyers Club yet. He has already won a few important awards for this film (most notably some film critics associations like the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Screen Actors Guild) and has been nominated for the Independent Spirit Awards, which don't get announced until the day before the Oscars. I predict he takes that award too.
Cooper is gaining traction as a respected and audience-friendly actor, especially in David O. Russell's latest films, but he still needs a few more of these on his resume before he'll take home a golden boy. Likewise for Jonah Hill and Michael Fassbender, both of whom have repertoires of mostly fluffy fun movies but a few solid Oscar worthy roles under their respective belts too. More time is needed.
Barkhad Abdi looks like his performance in Captain Phillips was intense and otherwise perfect but who is he? What else has he done? It's sad to say but the Academy hardly ever gives a prize to an outstanding newcomer unless it's for Best Supporting Actress (see Marisa Tomei (for My Cousin Vinny – 1992), Anna Paquin (for The Piano – 1993), Mira Sorvino (for Mighty Aphrodite – 1995) or others.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) or June Squibb (Nebraska)
#1: Lupita Nyong'o
#2: Jennifer Lawrence
#3: June Squibb
This might be a tougher award to call but I'll give it a shot: Lupita Nyong'o or no one. Watch 12 Years a Slave and try not to have a swell of every human emotion tear you apart. It's a tough movie to watch but at least you know that the main character Solomon Northup only has to spend 12 years as a slave. Nyong'o's character, Patsey, gets a much longer sentence and it's made even worse as she faces worse punishment physically and mentally, the latter especially as she watches Northup be rescued and returned to freedom in front of her.
Jennifer Lawrence and Julia Roberts already have Oscars, be that as it may, and Sally Hawkins is another longshot candidate much like Barkhad Abdi. June Squibb would be my solid second guess for this award as she plays a long-suffering elderly wife of Bruce Dern's character in Nebraska. I haven't seen it but apparently it's an audience favourite and that's something that can go a long way for Academy voters.
If I'm totally wrong then Jennifer Lawrence will win just because she's kind of a big deal right now.
Best Actor
Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) or Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
#1: Chiwetel Ejiofor
#2: Christian Bale
#3: Matthew McConaughey
This is another one that I would give to the stellar actors of 12 Years a Slave. Chiwetel Ejiofor was outstanding in all respects: not over the top, dignified, reserved, eloquent. His performance is the reason that I love movies.
Sure, Christian Bale is a strong actor who often embodies his characters but this was not a role that sticks out in my memory as much as Ejiofor as Solomon Northup. Matthew McConaughey is improving greatly with age too, and has awards for this performance to prove it too. He won't win this trophy but there's a part of me who would desperately love to see him start his acceptance speech "all right, all right, all right" à la Dazed and Confused.
Bruce Dern might get the same kind of popular appeal vote like his co-star June Squibb but it won't likely be nearly enough. Oh… and Leonardo DiCaprio should never win an Oscar for anything ever.
Best Actress
Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena) or Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
#1: Amy Adams
#2: Judi Dench
#3: Cate Blanchett
Another tough call… probably the toughest. This one could even go to a tie. I'm putting my chip down on Amy Adams because she's been nominated four times already and enough is enough. Meryl Streep is always a strong performer but seems like a long shot in this race. Cate Blanchett could pull this one off as actresses often get excellent consideration in Woody Allen movies. Still, this one seems unlikely. And Judi Dench doesn't need awards even though she deserves every single one of them. She makes cinematographers look good, she's that outstanding a performer.
Sandra Bullock for best actress in Gravity… not a chance in all the heavens. That was a movie that existed for the technical achievements, not the performances.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell), Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen), Her (Spike Jonze), Nebraska (Bob Nelson), or Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
#1: Her
#2: Blue Jasmine
#3: Nebraska
Hollywood generally doesn't give full appreciation to originality even for original screenplays, so this one is a crapshoot. American Hustle was formulaic although excellent. Nebraska is quirky and subdued. Dallas Buyers Club has gotten more attention for its stars than for its story. Woody Allen has long held the title as most prolific and generally best regarded (for his writing) too, but Blue Jasmine doesn't seem as iconic as Manhattan or Annie Hall. For original originality, my go-to guy is Spike Jonze. He should get engraved on a golden dude's pedestal.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater), Captain Phillips (Billy Ray), 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley), The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) or Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
#1: The Wolf of Wall Street
#2: 12 Years a Slave
#3: Before Midnight
Despite my misgivings about the actual content of The Wolf of Wall Street, its story and structure were indeed strong and creative enough to warrant putting it in the lead on this list. 12 Years a Slave was pretty good too and Before Midnight might sway voters with the swansong to Richard Linklater's love letter to a longstanding love affair but I doubt it. As for Philomena or Captain Phillips, I just don't think that they had what it takes.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), David O. Russell (American Hustle), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) or Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
#1: Alfonso Cuarón
#2: Steve McQueen
#3: David O. Russell
Alexander Payne is the long shot here; I'm sure of that. Martin Scorsese is the king of directors in my usual mind but I have many serious reservations about a lot of the choices that he made with The Wolf of Wall Street.
David O. Russell has a really good track record of ensemble dramas over the last five years, and he knows how to coax great or at least really good performances out of even mediocre actors. He might pull this one off. Likewise, Steve McQueen handled 12 Years a Slave with a deft, masterful hand. His scenes had tremendous emotional impact and much of the film is still burned into my memory.
Despite all this, Gravity was a singular achievement as a monumental directing challenge. I didn't even see this movie in 3-D as I should have but I could still see the painstaking labour, the years of preparation, the dedication to technique while keeping a mind on the art… all that, and he still had to work with George Clooney and Sandra Bullock. Doing that and creating an incredible movie like Gravity is definitely an accomplishment. That film was a bit of a game changer and so Cuarón deserves much credit.
Best Picture
American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, or The Wolf of Wall Street
#1: American Hustle
#2: 12 Years a Slave
#3: Gravity
I struggled with this one but eventually put American Hustle at the top. It's because of all of the campaigning that goes on to convince the voters. Honestly, 12 Years a Slave should win in my view but I don't think it's getting marketed to the Academy as strongly as it should. Gravity, like I said, was really good and should get high praise for technical accomplishments but not the big prize itself.
Other notes
I wish that there were categories for best voice performances or best motion capture performances. Andy Serkis would probably have a handful of golden boys by now if these were the case. Host Ellen DeGeneres would have had one too for her stellar work as Dory in Finding Nemo. I can't wait for the sequel, Finding Dory, in 2016. How often do you hear me say that?
