Last Dec. 17 Danielle Smith and eight other Wildrose MLAs strode over to the Progressive Conservative side of the legislature carpet – all harsh words previously uttered between the defectors and their former foe were now inoperative. The news stunned Alberta’s political observers. Coming after two Wildrose floor crossings three weeks earlier (following which Danielle had vowed there would be no further defections), the excited talk was that Wildrose was likely finished. Yet with less than a week left in the current election campaign it is apparent that Premier Prentice’s gambit to unite the right has not succeeded. The plastic politician show played poorly. No more Wildrosers jumped ship, the beleaguered crew rallied, and since the election writ dropped Wildrose has battled on effectively.
In welcoming his former opponents aboard the Good Ship Tory, the premier possibly remembered an earlier experience that seemingly augured smooth sailing. In 2003, he had been a supporter of the federal Progressive Conservative Party when it voted to merge with the Canadian Alliance. The newly minted Conservative Party of Canada prospered. A little more than two years later it became the government, and the then MP Jim Prentice was made a cabinet minister. But there were significant differences between the 2003 merger and last December’s quickie coat turning. Back in 2003, the federal PCs were going nowhere, a party still in tatters after its post-Mulroney shredding a decade earlier. In contrast, Wildrose has been on the build from its formation in 2008, was actually predicted to win Alberta’s 2012 election, and held together after its surprise defeat. Another difference is that the 2003 union of the federal right involved open debate and votes on both sides. By contrast, the first time Wildrose members learned of Danielle’s deal with Premier Jim came when he and the floor crossers were exchanging hosannas that long ago day in December.
The biggest threat to Wildrose now may be last minute strategic voting, with Wildrose supporters deciding to hold their noses and cast ballots for the Prentice team to keep out Red Rachel, while Liberal Party adherents anxious to bar Wildrose from power but recognizing their own party’s present infirmity vote instead for the burgeoning NDP. But memories of Allison and the Sky Palace will likely merge with resentment at Premier Prentice’s attempted gutting of Wildrose to ensure that a solid core of Wildrose votes will remain. After all, should Prentice and the Tories begin to crumble in this election, Wildrose is the heir apparent on the right. But this leads to a bit of apocalypse now thinking – what if enough people in the province have become convinced that it is time for the PCs to go? Hard to believe, but seemingly solid dynasties can crumble fast. In 1993, federal PC support eroded steadily over Kim Campbell’s ill-fated campaign, but no commentators I recall predicted that a governing party with a vast majority would be burned back to only two elected members.
Writer David Haas is a long term St. Albert resident.
