If you have been keeping pace with the numerous opinion polls for the upcoming 28th provincial general election, then you have noticed some interesting statistics. A cursory glance at the last 12 polls, which span from Forum Research on Jan. 17 to Ipsos-Reid on March 20-25, reveals what looks to be a two-horse race between the PC and Wildrose parties for what could be a photo finish and a near dead heat between the Liberals and NDP for ‘show.’ It sounds like we might be in for some exciting political prancing!
In January we saw great discrepancies in public opinion. Leger Marketing had the PCs out front with 53 seats and the Wildrose with 16. The Liberals and NDP were close at 11 and 13 respectively. That same week Forum Research presented these findings: PC 38, Wildrose 29, NDP 13, Liberal 14, Alberta 3 and other 4. We observed a huge discrepancy between the top two ponies. Perhaps this just goes to show that a poll is simply a poll. After all, 78.38 per cent of statistics are made up on the spot. Perhaps it is the case that some polls rely on previous scouting reports or do not call upon a wide enough sample?
Ipsos Reid’s March 20-25 poll put the PCs and Wildrose neck and neck at a projected 38 seats each. Now this is getting interesting. We may need to finally change the flashbulb in the camera and be waiting at the finish line with baited breath.
But wait, Abacus Data provided its March 26-28 findings and suggests that there has been a surprise breakaway by Wildrose Express. These numbers show Wildrose at 41 and PC at 28. Can the incumbent PCs’ jockey run their prized Mustang Filly into the winner’s circle? What about place and show? Who will take those laurels? Will it be the Liberal’s Red Dream, the NDP’s Orange Bandwagon, Alberta Party’s I Can Run Too or the others’ Wasisname?
Wait, there is another!
There is, of course, that standoffish colt, the one known for its consistently inconsistent tendencies. You all know its name and you may have even bet on this one in the past: Voter’s Apathy. This is what is so sad about Alberta politics. Candidates spend money on a bale of ‘vote for me’ signs, parties fatten up their attack ads while the voting public, many thinking that Alberta is still a one-horse province, are at the concession stand or otherwise not engaged in the issues.
Of course, once the election is over, and the pundits have had their fill of straw polls, there will be those who will bellyache over the outcome. If you vote, then rejoice or bellyache as is your right. If you do not vote, then shame on you. Take your complaining and whining to the mirror and take a good long look at someone who does not deserve to say a single word of complaint.
We all have a vested interest in our future. We all have the democratic right to vote for the candidate or party that we believe will best represent our views and vision for Alberta. The times are changing – in fact, just in case you were sleeping – the times changed a while ago. If you are still stuck on cruise control then it is time to get your hands back on the wheel or reins or handlebars and put yourself in the election race.
The recent polls are essentially a means to gauge the political temperature. They add to the excitement and serve to stimulate interest in the populace. So, why not do some action research of your own and get up to date on the platforms and candidates? Do not let apathy put you out to pasture or worse, the glue factory (do they still have those?) on April 23.
Climb up into that saddle and vote.
Tim Cusack knows never to call for the Gallup with a full bladder!
