The art of negotiation is like a poker game; one needs to figure out what the other player has in their hand without revealing what is in one’s own. All players have “tells,” giving away clues as to what cards they hold, and one can learn to play these strengths or weaknesses. If you cannot do this, poker is probably not the game for you. The Trudeau government has shown this with its most recent courting of China, as it eagerly rushed to show it was not like the previous Harper government, and it may have just given away the farm, literally.
Weeks before Canada’s official visit to China, the Xi Jinping government put forward the idea of reducing the dockage allowed on Canadian canola to one percent, which sent ripples through the media. Questions were raised on the impact this would have on Canadian farmers, as 40 per cent of Canadian canola goes to China. That is equivalent to $2 billion of a raw, barely processed, commodity.
Within short-term thinking, there is of course an impact upon our economy, especially those who are immediately impacted by this news: the farmers. As China removed this threat, once again it should be added, we gratefully made concessions, like joining the controversial Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Though there will be tangible benefits for a handful of Canadian companies in Asia, as they now have an opportunity to bid on projects in that region, where is the investment at home? Where is our long-term thinking on building and restructuring Canada’s economy? No one can deny that Asian markets present a tempting market opportunity for large-scale businesses, all of which are looking to capitalize on these market opportunities. But where are the value-added opportunities here at home?
Maybe, in truth, the world no longer needs Canada and its commodities. Many economists around the globe state this fact. Our commodities can be obtained from other countries now more readily and at less expense. And, with such a small population, we are not the consumer-market that they will pander to. So, it is obvious that Canada does not start from a strong bargaining position.
But nor does China have as strong a position as we are led to believe. A flagging economy, regional distrust, and internal problems, which include the suppression of human rights, China’s government needs the “rock star” image of Justin Trudeau to bolster its international and domestic credibility. Though China is in our top five list of trading partners, it lags far behind the U.S., and there are other states too that we trade with, like the U.K. and Japan, which we do not have trade deficits with. Maybe this was the hand that Trudeau should have played, looking to China to consume more of our value-added goods, reducing that trade deficit. Maybe then, we would see the needed investment here at home to transform our economy from one primarily based on commodities. But instead, he may have just folded that hand, squandering that opportunity, to invest in the future of another region.
