Tomorrow represents the 70th anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, the city of Nagasaki suffered a similar fate. While casualty figures were difficult to confirm, the most accepted estimate indicated that 129,000 people died in the two attacks (although other estimates were up to double this number). It should also be pointed out that roughly 22,000 Korean forced labourers also perished in these two explosions.
By August 1945, Japan stood alone as the last remaining member of the Axis powers. Both Italy and Germany had already surrendered. Despite the horrific destruction, records recovered later indicated that Japan’s surrender, on Aug. 15, likely had more to do with the Soviet Union’s declaration of war, on Aug. 11, rather than the two atomic bomb attacks.
America’s decision to use the bombs stemmed, in part, from the predictions the U.S. Army had developed as to the level of casualties they would suffer during a full blown invasion of the Japanese homeland. The American estimates suggested the Allies would suffer nearly one million deaths amongst their fighting forces before conquering Japan, and they further estimated that anywhere from five to 10 million Japanese soldiers and civilians would also be killed (although Japan’s own estimates projected in excess of 20 million deaths for these same soldiers and civilians).
Japan had long been expecting this invasion, and had nearly three million soldiers ready to defend their island, along with local militias of nearly 23 million. Of course, over the years many have questioned whether this threat of casualties was really the primary factor in America’s decision, and whether or not there were other ways Japan could have been made to surrender without an invasion and without the use of these weapons. All of the men involved in the decision are long since dead, so the best we can probably assume is that the Allies made the decision for a series of reasons, some appropriate and some not.
Since 1945, seven other nations have joined the nuclear club, including the Soviet Union, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea (although Israel has never confirmed the existence of their own weapon, it’s widely believed that Israel also possesses this device). Other nations, including Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa eventually abandoned their programs, as the costs simply became too high.
If there is any good news to this whole story it must simply be the fact that no other atomic weapons have been used in any war, for the last 70 years. However, documents released by Russia a few years ago shows how close we have come –during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, Soviet submarine commanders were given the authority to independently launch nuclear missiles against the U.S. homeland, if they felt it necessary. One Russian commander did reach this decision, however, any launch also required agreement from the second in command, who in this case, thank God, refused to approve the launch. Way too close for comfort.
As many of you know, Iran has been developing a domestic nuclear power program, a program that has caused many western (and middle eastern) nations to fear that atomic bombs may be the real intended product – a fact that Iran denies. Recently, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry tentatively negotiated an agreement with Iran; a treaty he claims eliminates this threat (although Republicans in the House or the Senate could refuse to ratify this treaty). While even a cursory glance of the details shows holes big enough to allow a bulldozer through, sideways, one can only hope that both sides have negotiated in good faith.
For me, I’m not so concerned about Iran’s current regime – despite shooting off its mouth on a regular basis; it’s hard to condemn Iran when Donald Trump is doing the same thing. Rather, I fear for the next regime that follows the current one in Iran. Even now, an Iranian domestic group, a group that admires the tactics (if not the religion) of ISIS could be building. It’s not the devil you know that you should fear; it’s the devil you don’t know.
Brian is a long time resident of St. Albert.
