Awaking to a new NDP government, some Albertans have proclaimed shock at this political outcome, but the question is why? This NDP government is not the same party as one sees in Ottawa, nor is it the same as other provincial NDP parties. It is an Alberta NDP party that reflects the conservative values of Albertans.
In his immediate analysis of this election, Stephen Carter said it best when he noted that since 2004, Albertans have had very little choice in whom to vote for. The Klein government of that time had moved a little more centrist from its earlier policies, as good times returned to Alberta, with Stelmach following suit. The Redford government too stayed relatively centrist in 2012, juxtaposing itself to the radical ideals of the Wildrose Party at that time: fear and no viable alternative won the PCs that election.
If one were to overlay the voting demographics from the federal elections of this same timeframe, something remarkable becomes apparent: the NDP usually came second – it came first in one riding – in Alberta, as the Liberal Party still was despised since the proposed NEP in 1979. There was a clear liberal, socially aware sentiment wanted in this province.
Enter Rachel Notley: she picked up on this, putting together a non-traditional NDP platform, which was more akin to the PCs of the 1970s and 1980s. It understood that the energy sector and that small and medium businesses were the heart of Alberta’s economy, so it strove to accommodate these facts. More importantly, it realized the importance of health care and education on the economy, the investing in Albertans’ future. It was easy this time for most Albertans to consider an alternative, especially those in urban areas, where the majority of Albertans live.
If you look at the divide of seats across Alberta, it is truly apparent that the NDP is an urban success. There are two large, orange islands surrounded by a blue and green sea of rural ridings, with those islands clearly being Edmonton and Calgary. The mindset here is clearly different, with many who did not benefit as obviously from oil. A higher concentration of people in lower paying jobs, mainly youth, facing higher costs of living. No wonder Prentice’s fear-mongering fell flat when it was apparent that those that would face the brunt of his cost-cutting measures lived on these urban atolls. The result was a surge of new and young voters, racing to the polls to vote for Notley’s more optimistic platform.
Time will tell how successful Rachel Notley’s government will be in the course of these next four years. If she stays the course, she may very easily navigate these Conservative waters. The real question is: how will the federal Conservatives fair in the upcoming election? As John Ivison has noted, the Harper Conservatives should take note. If the federal NDP can take a page from Notley’s playbook, it is obvious that they can take political ground beyond just Quebec. Many Canadians are looking for hope and optimism, which the political right has forgotten about, and urban Canadians may have more options come October.
John Kennair is an international consultant and doctor of laws who lives in St. Albert.
