 Environment - March 15, 2008 |
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Save water now, report suggests
Warm winters, dry summers predicted |
By Kevin Ma
Staff Writer
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Albertans can expect warmer, wetter winters and drier summers in the next few years, says a new report, and should start saving water now if they want farms and the oilsands to survive a climate change future.
Natural Resources Canada published its Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 report late last week. The 453-page document is the first comprehensive look in 10 years at how climate change will affect the country, and comes with a strong message for Alberta — adapt now or pay later.
Dave Sauchyn, professor of geography at the University of Regina, was lead author of the report’s Prairie chapter. "Since 1997, most of the impacts of climate change we have been aware of have become obvious," he said. Spring now starts 26 days earlier than it did a century ago, for example, and forests and wildlife are shifting northwards.
The report, the work of some 120 scientists, finds that Alberta has already warmed 1.6 degrees on average since 1895, and predicts it will warm a further two by 2050. By 2080, the province could be six degrees warmer than it is now.
That warmth will mean a hotter, drier Alberta, Sauchyn said. "Even though the models predict more precipitation each year, the models predict it will occur in winter and spring when we need it least. By the time we get to the end of a long, warm summer, we’ll actually have less water than we used to."
Costs and opportunities
A warmer Alberta does have its good points, Sauchyn said. "Most people won’t complain about a shorter winter," for example, which could mean a 45-per-cent longer growing season and fewer pothole repairs.
But every good point comes with a bad one. Alberta will have 23 per cent fewer heating days, for example, but up to 218 per cent more cooling ones. Higher winds will clear air pollution, but also erode soil. Parts of Banff will lose almost their entire ski season by 2050, but gain tourists in the summer.
Water will be problem number one in the years to come, the report found. Annual flows in the South Saskatchewan watershed are predicted to fall eight to 13 per cent by 2050 while water demand jumps 136 per cent. Less water will mean more algae blooms, water pollution, droughts, and forest fires.
Adaptation needed
Alberta is already committed to some climate warming no matter how much it cuts greenhouse gas emissions, the report found, so it needed to take steps to adapt to it.
Building dams and reservoirs won’t help, said University of Alberta biologist David Schindler, who reviewed the report. "All the big dams on the Colorado are going dry," he said, and the South Saskatchewan already has about 500. The province needs to protect its wetlands and shorelines to raise its natural water storage capacity. "Every sector has gotta undertake a conservation program," he added, and farmers will want to shift away from water-intense crops like alfalfa.
The oilsands are going to have to take a hard look at their water use, Sauchyn said. "It’s very likely the Athabasca River cannot support the current rate of development." Companies would have to maximize water recycling and reuse contaminated water that currently sits in tailings ponds.
Alberta has more resources than just about any place on Earth in terms of what it can do about climate change, Sauchyn said, but it has to mobilize them. Alberta farmers are already preparing for the future, he noted, planting and harvesting earlier to take advantage of spring moisture.
The province needs to do some more thinking ahead, Schindler said. "How many people do we want here?" he said as an example. "Are we going to let them all move into the Calgary area?"
The report is available at www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca. |
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